"Failed Predictions" explores why forecasts so often miss the mark by examining historical miscalculations across technology and economics. The book highlights how cognitive biases and flawed methodologies lead to forecasting failures, even among experts. It reveals that even sophisticated predictive models falter due to unforeseen events and incomplete data, compounded by recurring human errors like overconfidence and groupthink. Understanding these errors is vital for better decision-making.
The book traces the evolution of forecasting from ancient times to modern econometrics, revealing consistent challenges. Case studies from technology, economics, and geopolitics illustrate how predictions fail, such as underestimating technological disruptions or misjudging economic trends. By dissecting these failures, the book provides practical guidance for improving forecasting practices and developing more adaptable strategies for navigating future uncertainties.
The book is structured into three parts: introducing core concepts and biases, presenting case studies, and synthesizing lessons learned. By focusing on common threads in forecasting errors, "Failed Predictions" offers a unique perspective valuable to general readers, professionals in finance and technology, and policymakers seeking to make better decisions in an uncertain world.
