Exit Poll Accuracy explores the role and reliability of exit polls in shaping election night narratives. It delves into the methodology of exit polls, examining how they collect and analyze data, and questions whether they are truly accurate predictors of election outcomes or simply tools that media outlets use to construct particular stories.
The book emphasizes the importance of understanding potential biases in exit polls, such as sampling and response bias, and how these biases can influence media coverage. Readers will gain insights into how exit polls have historically performed, comparing their predictions to actual election results.
The book progresses by first defining exit polls and their mechanics, then critically evaluating their accuracy in past elections, and finally examining how media outlets use exit poll data to create narratives. It uses both statistical analyses of exit poll data and qualitative analyses of media coverage. For example, the book presents statistical analyses of exit poll data from numerous elections, comparing exit poll results to official election outcomes.
Exit Poll Accuracy uniquely offers a balanced perspective, acknowledging both the strengths and weaknesses of exit polls, and provides recommendations for improving their accuracy and transparency.
