Famous Wrong Predictions explores the captivating history of forecasting failures, revealing how even experts can be spectacularly wrong about the future. It delves into cognitive biases and flawed reasoning that lead to prediction errors, demonstrating how over-reliance on existing data and limited imagination can derail even the most informed forecasts. For example, the book examines why major innovations were often dismissed, despite their transformative potential.
The book uniquely blends historical analysis with insights from cognitive science and behavioral economics, offering a multidisciplinary perspective on why predictions fail. Structured in three parts, it begins by introducing core concepts of prediction, then presents instructive case studies spanning technology, economics, and social trends, and concludes by analyzing the underlying causes of these failures, providing lessons for better decision-making.
Readers will gain valuable insights into the limitations of human foresight and learn to critically assess future possibilities.
